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Phosphate Market Update

Published on
28 November 2024
Written by
Hugo Nankivell
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As at 28/11/24, this pricing analysis on Chinese product is irrelevant. December 1 is the date stated for a halt on Phosphate exports. Diammonium Phosphate has been snapped up by traders looking to fill the Ethiopian Tender. Rumours were that this is halt would be enacted January 1st 2025. The expectation is now that December 1 2024, all Phosphates out of China will be halted. A key driver is the rapidly increasing Sulphur prices pushing up production costs.

Key Pricing Movements

Technical MAP (TMAP):

Increased to USD 840–870/MT FOB China, up by USD 20/MT in the last fortnight. The rise reflects robust demand from feed and industrial sectors, the winter re-stocking program in the North, coupled with constrained export availability from major producers. North African producers, notably in Morocco, have raised offers to USD 880–900/MT FOB, driven by higher production costs and limited supply.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):

Chinese DAP prices are firm at USD 620–630/MT FOB, with availability restricted as producers focus on fulfilling large tenders, such as Ethiopia’s significant procurement drive. Meanwhile, Indian DAP imports slowed, with offers hovering between USD 620–640/MT FOB in Morocco and USD 600–610/MT FOB in the US Gulf. In Pakistan, domestic off-take hit a three-year high, driving imports despite recent price softening.

Monopotassium Phosphate (MKP):

Prices offered range from USD 1,180–1,240/MT FOB. European, South American and South Asian demands remain stable, driven by high-value crops and water-soluble fertiliser preferences.

Magnesium Sulphate (Kieserite):

Chinese kieserite prices are at USD 130–140/MT FOB, while demand in Europe for kieserite (25 MgO, 20 S) ranges from USD 200–240/MT CIF.

Emerging Trends and Regional Analysis

Sulphur Costs and Impact:

Sulphur, while not directly used in TMAP production, has seen price increases to USD 204/MT CFR China (+3.8% from October). This impacts related products like DAP and phosphoric acid, driving up input costs and indirectly tightening TMAP margins. Producers across North Africa and Asia face higher operational costs, further constraining supply.

North Africa and the Middle East:

Morocco remains a key supplier, balancing commitments to Ethiopian tenders while maintaining FOB DAP prices at USD 600–620/MT. Rising raw material costs continue to strain margins. In Saudi Arabia, Ma’aden’s sales of 265,000 MT of DAP highlight strong demand from the US, India, and Pakistan, with December shipments priced on formula.

Asia-Pacific:

China’s phosphate exports are shifting focus, with reduced shipments to India (-72% YoY) offset by increased exports to Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Domestic production priorities have tightened MAP and DAP export availability, further stressing Southeast Asian markets. Meanwhile, demand recovery in Thailand and Indonesia is expected to accelerate as irrigation seasons resume.

Latin America:

Brazil’s MAP prices hold at USD 635/MT CFR, with subdued activity as buyers focus on SSP and NP fertilisers. South America remains a growth hub for specialty fertilisers, supported by strong adoption in high-value crop cultivation.

Europe:

The European market remains steady, with MKP prices aligning closely with global trends. Kieserite demand continues to grow, particularly in magnesium-deficient regions. K+S’s upcoming TMAP capacity in Serbia (50,000 MT/year by 2026) underscores the region’s focus on localised production to mitigate supply chain uncertainties.

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